Do you feel like the economy isn’t making a lot of sense right now?
Is there a mismatch between the headlines and your perception?
If so, you’re not alone.
There’s a big divide between the current data and the “vibes” many Americans are feeling.
Here’s what I mean:
When you look at the data, the economy is actually looking pretty good.
Many economists think the Fed will be able to cut interest rates by mid-2024.1
The labor market is surprisingly strong, adding 336,000 jobs in September, up significantly from the 200,000+ added in both July and August.2
Manufacturing, which slowed earlier in the year, looks to be rebounding as factory output rises.3
And Americans are still spending online, in stores, and in restaurants.2
Right when a lot of analysts worried we’d see a slowdown.
In fact, the estimates for Q3 economic growth look downright rosy.4
But why does it feel like the economy is teetering?
When it comes to the economy, the data and our perceptions often don’t match.
I think that’s for a few reasons.
All told, there are a number of reasons why you might not feel positive about the economy.
There are definitely potential headwinds ahead for the economy. There always are.
The wars in Israel and Ukraine inject pain and uncertainty.
The excess savings Americans built up during the pandemic have largely been spent, which could slow future spending.5
The effects of high interest rates are still percolating throughout the economy. It’s not clear that we’ve seen the full effects yet.
A rising number of subprime borrowers are late with their loan payments.6
Bottom line: The U.S. economy is still going strong from where the data stands, but it's not surprising if the “vibes” don't match.
What's important is staying flexible and acting with confidence, not fear.
My team and I are watching the data closely and we'll reach out with more information as needed.
Questions in the meantime? We're here to help. Just give us a call and we will find a time to chat.
What do you think? How is the economy doing from where you’re standing?
Advisory Services Offered Through CreativeOne Wealth, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor. Insurance products offered by Schultz Family Enterprises, LLC DBA Preservation Retirement Services. CreativeOne Wealth is not affiliated with Schultz Family Enterprises and Preservation Retirement Services. Neither the firm nor its agents or representatives may give tax or legal advice. Individuals should consult with a qualified professional for guidance before making any purchasing decisions. Our firm is not affiliated with the U.S. government or any governmental agency. Licensed Insurance Professional.
Sources
1. https://www.wsj.com/economy/a-recession-is-no-longer-the-consensus-3ad0c3a3
2. https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-economy-was-supposed-to-slow-by-now-instead-its-revving-up-3c0f7a2e
3. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm
4. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Chart source: https://www.wsj.com/economy/a-recession-is-no-longer-the-consensus-3ad0c3a3
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Advisory services offered through CreativeOne Wealth, a Registered Investment Adviser. Preservation Retirement Services and CreativeOne Wealth are not affiliated. The insurance products offered by Preservation Retirement Services are not subject to Investment Advisor requirements. The Retirement Protection Plan is our proprietary process name and it does not promise or guarantee investment results or preservation of principal. 2023/07/28 - 17149121